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22 Jun 2023 | Cryosphere

Flood risk rising despite below-average monsoon

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Extremely dry(< -3), Very dry(-2 to -3), Dry(-1 to -2), Near normal (1 to -1), Wet(1 to 2), Very wet(2 to 3), Extremely wet(>3)
Key messages
Flood risk rising
Extremely dry(< -3), Very dry(-2 to -3), Dry(-1 to -2), Near normal (1 to -1), Wet(1 to 2), Very wet(2 to 3), Extremely wet(>3)

Figure 1: The four-month precipitation outlook from May to August 2023 indicates that near-normal conditions will persist in most of the basins except the Ganges basin where relatively some deficit is expected. A minor surplus is expected of the lower parts of the Indus basin. Source:


June–September are crucial months for the HKH, with the monsoon rains accounting for 80% of the region’s annual precipitation. The increasing unpredictability of the season, however, is causing chains of disastrous events, leaving countries in the region struggling to adapt and respond. We have had several recent incidences where a single event has triggered disastrous impacts – the 2022 Pakistan floods, which led to 1730 deaths and economic losses tallying over USD 15 billion being the most recent.


The time to act is now.

For further information, please contact our inhouse experts:

Manish Shrestha:

Pradeep Dangol:


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