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13 December 2021 to
15 December 2021
Mandira Singh Shrestha & Santosh Nepal
Organizers: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), and Met Office – UK
In collaboration with the Met Office, UK’s national meteorological agency, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI); the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) – Pune, we are organizing a three-day training for relevant professionals in Bangladesh on spatial and temporal analysis of climate change using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia. Supported by the WCRP/CORDEX, this training will introduce climate change science and focus on bias calculation and selection of few representative models for a defined area of interest.
The training aims to build knowledge and skills for analysing climate change projections using CORDEX regional climate model simulations for professionals in Bangladesh.
The training will help participants better understand climate model projections using 17 regional climate models, selecting representative models which best replicate historical climate cycles, and assessing spatial and temporal variability of present and future climate change over a defined area of interest.
In addition to gaining an overall understanding of climate modelling and downscaling, the participants will be able to:
In its current iteration, this training is being offered to professionals from the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and relevant universities in Bangladesh.
Kabi Raj Khatiwada
Mandira Singh Shrestha
AKM Saiful Islam
In October 2020, we partnered with the Met Office, WCRP/CORDEX, SMHI, and IITM – Pune to organize a training on Regional climate change projections: Climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia for professionals from national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) in ARRCC focal countries— Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan under our Climate Services Initiative. Thereafter, we organized a country-focused training for the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Tribhuvan University in Nepal in June 2021.
The December 2021 edition will focus on using CORDEX regional climate models for spatial and temporal analysis of climate change over South Asia for professionals from Bangladesh. The training will delve into how R-based tools can be used to analyse and visualize climate change projections spatially at different time scales.
Organized under the UK Aid supported the Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, these trainings are part of the ARRCC’s institutional capacity-building approach to strengthen the knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions, delivering climate services to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia.
Timings are in Bangladesh Standard Time (BST, UTC+06:00).
Welcome remarks – Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal, BUET
Opening remarks – Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD
Overview of the training programme – Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
Introductions and expectations from participants
CORDEX – South Asia: Providing high resolution climate projections in Southern Asia region – J. Sanjay, IITM–Pune
Climate change and its impact on the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region – Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
Extracting CORDEX datasets (precipitation and temperature)
Clipping datasets for an area of interest (Chittagong)
Annual climate patterns of all 17 CORDEX models
Understanding the present climatology (precipitation and temperature) using APHRODITE data (1976–2005)
Comparison of CORDEX datasets with reference datasets – APHRODITE
Calculate seasonal bias (step 1)
Calculate annual bias (step 2)
Narrow down the model to 4 RCMs (RCP4.5) and 4 RCMs (RCP8.5)
Ensemble mean of selected 4 models
Calculation of future scenarios of precipitation and temperature at both scenarios
Calculation of the annual and seasonal change for the season
Preparation of the maps
Discussion on the results
CORDEX: dynamical downscaling of CMIP6
Grigory Nikulin, SMHI
Irene Lake, SMHI/CORDEX
Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD