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Training

Spatial and temporal climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia for Bangladesh

Venue

Dhaka, Bangladesh

Date & Time

13 December 2021 to 15 December 2021

Contact

Mandira Singh Shrestha & Santosh Nepal

Organizers: Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), and Met Office – UK

 

About the training

In collaboration with the Met Office, UK’s national meteorological agency, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI); the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) – Pune, we are organizing a three-day training for relevant professionals in Bangladesh on spatial and temporal analysis of climate change using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia. Supported by the WCRP/CORDEX, this training will introduce climate change science and focus on bias calculation and selection of few representative models for a defined area of interest.

 

Objectives

The training aims to build knowledge and skills for analysing climate change projections using CORDEX regional climate model simulations for professionals in Bangladesh.

 

Expected outcomes

The training will help participants better understand climate model projections using 17 regional climate models, selecting representative models which best replicate historical climate cycles, and assessing spatial and temporal variability of present and future climate change over a defined area of interest.

In addition to gaining an overall understanding of climate modelling and downscaling, the participants will be able to:

  • Prepare CORDEX datasets in areas of interest and compare them with reference datasets
  • Visualize spatial and temporal variation in climate change projections
  • Interpret uncertainty in model results

 

Participation

In its current iteration, this training is being offered to professionals from the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and relevant universities in Bangladesh.

 

Training Coordinator
ICIMOD
CORDEX
Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM – Pune
Institute for Water and Flood Management, BUET

Background

In October 2020, we partnered with the Met Office, WCRP/CORDEX, SMHI, and IITM – Pune to organize a training on Regional climate change projections: Climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia for professionals from national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) in ARRCC focal countries— Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan under our Climate Services Initiative. Thereafter, we organized a country-focused training for the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Tribhuvan University in Nepal in June 2021.

The December 2021 edition will focus on using CORDEX regional climate models for spatial and temporal analysis of climate change over South Asia for professionals from Bangladesh. The training will delve into how R-based tools can be used to analyse and visualize climate change projections spatially at different time scales.

Organized under the UK Aid supported the Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, these trainings are part of the ARRCC’s institutional capacity-building approach to strengthen the knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions, delivering climate services to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia.

 

Agenda

Timings are in Bangladesh Standard Time (BST, UTC+06:00).

Time Programme
09:00–10:30 Morning session

Opening session

Welcome remarks – Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal, BUET

Opening remarks – Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD

Overview of the training programme – Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Introductions and expectations from participants

Group photo

10:30–12:30 Presentations on the fundamental concepts of climate change science and prediction (Presentation followed by Q&A)

CORDEX – South Asia: Providing high resolution climate projections in Southern Asia region – J. Sanjay, IITM–Pune

Climate change and its impact on the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region – Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

12:30–13:30 Lunch break
13:30–15:00 Afternoon session

Software installations

Extracting CORDEX datasets (precipitation and temperature)

Clipping datasets for an area of interest (Chittagong)

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
15:00–15:30 Overview of CORDEX Irene Lake, SMHI/CORDEX
15:30–16:00 Application of CORDEX datasets in Bangladesh Saiful Islam, BUET
16:00-17:00 Preparing datasets for visualization

Annual climate patterns of all 17 CORDEX models

Understanding the present climatology (precipitation and temperature) using APHRODITE data (1976–2005)

Comparison of CORDEX datasets with reference datasets – APHRODITE

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
09:00–12:30 Morning session

Calculate seasonal bias (step 1)

Calculate annual bias (step 2)

Saurav Pradhananga,. Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Lunch break
13:30–17:00 Afternoon session

Narrow down the model to 4 RCMs (RCP4.5) and 4 RCMs (RCP8.5)

Ensemble mean of selected 4 models

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
09:00–12:30 Morning session

Calculation of future scenarios of precipitation and temperature at both scenarios

Calculation of the annual and seasonal change for the season

Preparation of the maps

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Lunch break
13:30–16:00 Afternoon session

Discussion on the results

Q&A

CORDEX: dynamical downscaling of CMIP6

Saurav Pradhananga,. Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Grigory Nikulin, SMHI

16:00–17:00 Closing session Mohammad Shahjahan Mondal, BUET

Irene Lake, SMHI/CORDEX

Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD

 

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