Quantcast
Back to events

Training

Spatial and temporal climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia

Venue

Online via Microsoft Teams

Date & Time

07 June 2021 to 11 June 2021

Contact

Climate Services, Mandira Singh Shrestha & Santosh Nepal

Organizers: ICIMOD and Met Office

 

CORDEX training

 

Background

In October 2020, ICIMOD and the Met Office, UK’s national meteorological agency, partnered with the World Climate Research Programme, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) – Pune, to organize a training on Regional climate change projections: Climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia. Organized under the UK Aid supported Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, the training is part of ARRCC’s institutional capacity-building approach to strengthen the knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions, delivering climate services to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia.

As a follow-on activity to the 2020 training, country focused trainings are being organized for professionals from different national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) in ARRCC focal countries– Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan – under ICIMOD’s Climate Services Initiative. The 2021 edition will focus on using CORDEX regional climate models to carry out spatial and temporal analysis of climate change over South Asia.

This training will introduce climate change science, and will focus on bias calculation and selection of few representative models for a defined area of interest. The training will delve deeper into how R based tools can be used to analyse and visualize climate change projections spatially at different time scales.

 

Objectives

The training aims to build underpinning knowledge and skills for analysing climate change projections using CORDEX regional climate model simulations.

 

Expected outcomes

This training will help participants better understand climate model projections using 17 regional climate models, selecting the representative models which replicate the historical climate cycles, and assessing spatial and temporal variability of present and future climate change over a defined area of interest.

In addition to gaining an overall understanding of climate modelling and downscaling, the participants will be able to:

  • Prepare CORDEX datasets in areas of interest and compare these with reference datasets
  • Visualize spatial and temporal variation in climate change projections
  • Interpret uncertainty in model results

 

Participation

In its current iteration, this training is being offered to professionals from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), and relevant institutions in Nepal.

Due to the current COVID19 pandemic, the training will be organized virtually.

 

 

Tentative agenda

Timings are in Nepal Standard Time (NPT, UTC+05:45).

Time Programme
10:00–11:30 Morning session

Troubleshooting with the installation of the required software

13:00–14:00 Afternoon session

Session chair: Ghulam Rasul, ICIMOD

Welcome remarks: Ghulam Rasul, ICIMOD

Opening remarks– Joseph Daron, Met Office

Objectives of the training –Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Institutional capacity-building approach for regional climate projections – Mandira Shrestha, ICIMOD

Introductions and expectations from participants

14:00–14:30 Break
14:30–17:00 Presentations on the fundamental concepts of climate change science and prediction (20 min presentations followed by 5 min Q & A)

Climate modelling and approaches to regional and local downscaling – Joseph Daron and Cathryn Fox, Met Office

Climate change and its impact on the HKH region – Arun Shrestha and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

 Break (20 minutes)
Introduction to CORDEX datasets over South Asia – J Sanjay, IITM

Application of future climate projections in Nepal – TBD, DHM

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Extracting CORDEX datasets (precipitation and temperatures)

Clipping datasets for an area of interest (Koshi)

Preparing datasets for visualization

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–14:00 Break
14:00–17:00 Afternoon session

Annual climate patterns of all 17 CORDEX models

Discussions about climatic patterns

Understanding the present climatology (precipitation and temperature) using APHRODITE data (1976–2005)

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Comparison of CORDEX datasets with reference datasets – APHRODITE

Calculate seasonal bias (step 1)

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–14:00 Break
14:00–17:00 Afternoon session

Calculate annual bias (step 2)

Narrow down the model to 4 RCMs (RCP4.5) and 4 RCMs (RCP8.5)

Ensemble mean of selected 4 models

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning

Calculation of future scenarios of precipitation and temperature at both scenarios

Q & A followed by discussion

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–14:00 Break
14:00–17:00 Afternoon session

Calculation of the annual and seasonal change for the season

Preparation of the maps

Q&A followed by discussion

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Calculation of the Scatter plot with min-max error bars

Understanding of the uncertainty among the models

Troubleshooting

Discussion on the results

Way forward

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada and Santosh Nepal, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Break  
13:30–17:00 Afternoon session

Closing session