Brace for high-hazard summer, warn experts, as a hotter, wetter monsoon is forecast for mountain Asia

A snapshot of summer monsoon forecasts from four major global meterorological agencies. I. Data Source: SASCOF, C3S, APCC and IRI. Graph by ICIMOD.

Temperatures are expected to be up to 2ºC hotter than average across the whole Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region this summer monsoon with three countries, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, as well as China’s Tibetan Autonomous Region also set for above-average rainfall, according to a new analysis of global and national meteorological agencies’ data from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

With floods the leading cause of deaths and economic damage in the HKH, and close to three-quarters (72.5%) of all floods from 1980 to 2024 occurring during the summer monsoon season, experts warn disaster agencies and communities to brace for a possible rise in climate risks and impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems.

“The forecasts we’ve studied are unanimous in predicting a hotter monsoon across the entire HKH, with a trend towards higher-than-normal rainfall in major parts of HKH.  ,” states Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Advisor at ICIMOD, one of the reviewers of the outlook.

“Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost. Lower rainfall, meanwhile, particularly in water-stressed countries such as Afghanistan, may pose risks to food and water security in a country with already extraordinarily high levels of malnutrition.”

“Given the extremely high exposure and risks in our region, we urgently need impact-based early warning systems adopted at scale, and for government and donor support to build up disaster preparedness to increase,” said Saswata Sanyal, Manager of ICIMOD’s Disaster Risk Reduction work.

The report, produced by ICIMOD’s Climate and Environmental Risks group, provides a synthesis of predictions from global and regional meteorological bodies including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Centre (APCC), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and national agencies.

Climate change – by driving more intense rainfall, permafrost degradation, and glacier retreat that can trigger floods, landslides, and GLOFs – is the primary cause of the increasing frequency and magnitude of mountain hazards in the HKH region.

Temperature rise, combined with wetter monsoons, can also raise the risk of heat stress and waterborne disease outbreaks, such as dengue, experts say.

South Asia has been wetter than average in recent years, except 2023, a major report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued last month confirmed. The organisation forecasts that this trend will continue until 2029.

WMO repeatedly emphasises the need for increased investment in climate services and early warning systems in the teeth of rapidly escalating climate risks, with a particular focus on building the capacity of national meteorological and hydrological services.

Of the total US$63billion spend on climate adaptation, an estimated $4-5billion – less than one tenth – currently goes on climate services and early warning systems, the organisation’s research shows.

“We know that worldwide, monitoring and prediction is playing an increasingly powerful role in safeguarding people and economic activity from rising climate risks,” said Sarthak Shrestha, remote-sensing and geo-information associate at ICIMOD and an author of the outlook.

“The Hindu Kush Himalayas is increasingly recognised as an epicentre of not just risk but also, given the huge population sizes here, of exposure – so it’s worrying that this is also a climate-data scarce region. We need the global climate banks and knowledge partners to work with national governments to bring more state-of-the-art forecasting tools to this region, to support the level of disaster readiness that will be able to save lives, and protect investments.”

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The summer monsoon is the major source of precipitation in the HKH region.

It has significant impacts on both the hydrology of the region’s rivers as well as on the region’s hazard risk, with intense or prolonged exposure to monsoon rainfall a key driver of increased risks of flash floods, debris floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods.

The Monsoon Outlook is one of a series of climate products ICIMOD produces through which the organisation provides information and knowledge for decisionmakers, policymakers, media, and publics.

Our annual HKH Snow Outlook, published in April showed that 2025 stands as not only the third consecutive year of below-normal snow persistence in the region, but a 23-year record low of almost a quarter below normal. Low snow persistence, a SASCOF study shows, in the Northern Hemisphere (which includes the HKH) is likely is often found to correlate with strong monsoons.

Monsoon outlook: forecast by country

• Afghanistan: below average rainfall June-September with severe dryness likely in the west. A tendency of above-normal temperatures, ranging from 0.5 to 2ºC increase in mean temperature anomaly, with SASCOF projecting 75% chance of increased minimum temperatures and up to 75% chance of increased maximum temperatures.
• Bangladesh: near-normal to slightly below-normal precipitation projected, but high probability of above average temperatures.
• Bhutan: near-normal precipitation projected, but mean temperatures expected to exceed long-term averages.
• China(Tibet Autonomous Region): a tendency of above-normal temperatures, ranging from 0.5 to 2ºC increase in mean temperature anomaly.
• India: strong probability that southwest monsoon seasonal precipitation will be above normal.
• Myanmar: near normal precipitation, potentially dry in the south, high probability of above-normal temperatures
• Nepal: above normal precipitation projected, and both minimum and maximum temperatures forecast to be above long-term averages
• Pakistan: normal to slightly above normal precipitation projected, with significant increases anticipated in northern Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern and southwestern Balochistan. Below-normal precipitation expected in North Khyder Pakhtunkhwa and western Gilgit Baltistan. Temperatures projected to be above-average, especially in Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir.

DOWNLOAD THE HKH MONSOON OUTLOOK HERE