Fundamentals of Strategic Foresight Programme

About the event

The training workshop is aimed at building the capacity of government officials and other relevant national and local stakeholders on the foresight approach. The approach facilitates integration of anticipatory lens into planning and policy, considering migration and climate change as major drivers of change in Bhutan. Participants will learn a range of practical frameworks and tools to get started on their foresight journey, focusing on identifying signs of change, sense-making, and communicating insights. Further, the participants will learn how to critically examine and challenge existing assumptions, and where necessary, rethink those assumptions to better understand emerging changes and inform future planning and decision making.

The training workshop is co-led by Luke Tay from Cornucopia FutureScape, Sabarnee Tuladhar and Shreeya Manandhar from ICIMOD, and Sangay Chophel from CBS.

The workshop is co-organised by ICIMOD in collaboration with the Office of the Cabinet Affairs and Strategic Coordination (OCASC) and the Centre for Bhutan Studies (CBS), with support from the SUCCESS project, funded by CLimate Adaptation and REsilience (CLARE) program.

Objectives

• Build a shared understanding of strategic foresight, its distinction from forecasting, and its relevance to Bhutan’s planning context.
• Introduce core foresight methods – horizon scanning, driver mapping, scenario development, and backcasting – through hands-on exercises.
• Apply foresight to Bhutan’s priority issues, with a specific focus on migration and climate change as identified in the May 2026 workshop.
• Strengthen institutional capacity for anticipatory planning across districts, central agencies, and OCSAC/PMO.
• Develop a community of practice among planning officers to sustain foresight application beyond the training.

Expected outcomes

• Build understanding of the core concepts, methods and tools of strategic foresight.
• Recognise the value of foresight in informing strategy, policymaking, planning, programme design and the implementation of policies and services.
• Develop practical skills in horizon scanning and sensemaking, using relevant tools and frameworks to identify emerging trends, generate insights and strengthen planning practices.
• Build connections with fellow planning officers to foster ongoing peer learning and collaboration.
• Learn from the foresight journeys and experiences of other countries and organisations.
• Explore approaches to communicating foresight insights effectively to engage stakeholders, inform decision-making and inspire change.

About the trainers

Luke Tay | Founder, Cornucopia FutureScapes
Sabarnee Tuladhar | Statistical Analyst, Economies: Foresight, ICIMOD
Shreeya Manandhar| Research Associate – Migration and Climate Change, Economies: Foresight, ICIMOD
Sangay Chophel| Dy. Chief Research Officer, Policy division, CBS

Expected participants

The event will be attended by planning officers from all the districts under the control of the Office of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, central agencies officials and officials from Office of the Cabinet Affairs and Strategic Coordination (OCSAC) / Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), along with other selected relevant personnel.

Background

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is undergoing rapid environmental and socio-economic changes driven by climate change, migration, urbanisation, infrastructure, and technological changes. Reactive approaches to tackle them will not be able to keep pace with these interconnected challenges. The uncertain future calls for “anticipatory actions and governance.”

Despite advances in climate science, significant knowledge gaps and uncertainties persists, moulding the ground realities. Bridging the gap between global knowledge and local needs is essential to build resilience against an uncertain future. Foresight can support this process by using powerful future oriented methods and tools such as horizon scanning and scenarios to explore alternative future and to stress-test policies, plans and interventions.

In this context, ICIMOD aims promote foresight approach to better understand uncertainties and possible future trajectories affecting mountain economies and livelihoods under different climate scenarios, to strengthen resilience of mountain communities.

The Centre for Bhutanese and GNH Studies (CBS), in collaboration with ICIMOD, previously organised ‘Strategic Foresight & Horizon Scanning Workshop’ at the CBS headquarters. Participants identified migration and climate change as two critical drivers shaping Bhutan’s future. Following the workshop and subsequent discussions, CBS received a formal request from the Office of the Prime Minister and Cabinet to support foresight training for governmental planning officials under its purview for strengthening their capacity for climate adaptation planning. This training workshop responds to that request by strengthening participants ability to incorporate anticipatory thinking into plans and strategies.

Agenda