Climate change scenarios

At present, climate scenarios available for the HKH region have coarse resolution, and poorly capture major features such as monsoons and westerly regimes. A large uncertainty is also due to limited model outputs and lack of multi-model ensemble results. Sectoral impact assessments need better quantitative information on the evolution of the climate in the future for planning adaptation and risk mitigation measures. The scope of this HICAP component is to downscale and customize climate scenarios to the region.

Outputs

Downscaled and customized climate scenarios for selected basins and relevant sub basins.

Strategic orientation

Analysis of trends and variability of the climate in the past for the basins and relevant sub basins; dynamically downscaling of climate scenarios to the basins; and statistically/stochastically downscaling of climate scenarios at strategic locations in the sub-basins for impact studies.

Activities

Collection of data and information, historical trend analysis, dynamic downscaling at basin and sub-basin levels, statistical/stochastic downscaling at strategic points relevant for impact studies, validation for the baseline period, scenario development and assessment. The component will draw from existing peer-reviewed and established international models on climate change and scenarios. This is important for supporting other components with required material for linking regional and local changes to adaptation strategies and methods. The component will ensure that models and scenarios used also have solid international foundations.

Deliverables

Trends and variability of climatic parameters; distributed downscaled climate scenarios; time series of climate scenarios for select points in the sub-basins.