Back to news
28 Feb 2025 | Press releases

Temperature rise causes flood risk and complexity to soar in high mountain asia – Scientists

Analysis of 73 years of floods finds climate change is the key driver of more frequent and less predictable floods in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya

2 mins Read

70% Complete

Kathmandu – A new analysis of 1,015 floods in High Mountain Asia, just published in Science Bulletin, confirms a significant rise in the frequency of floods since 2000 and confirms that temperature rise is driving the increase.

The study, Flood complexity and rising exposure risk in High Mountain Asia under climate change authored by Peking University’s Dongfeng Yi, ICIMOD Cryosphere Specialist Sonam Wangchuk, Peking University Yuanyuan Bai, University of Colorado’s Albert J. Kettner, is grounded in a new inventory of the types, patterns and causes of floods in the region stretching back to 1950.

Flood frequency has risen, the study confirms; but a key additional finding is a rise in the unpredictability in the timing of floods: while most events continue to occur during monsoon, there is a marked rise in the number of floods happening outside these times.

The study confirms that planetary heating from the burning of oil, coal, and gas is driving the rise in all four of the main types of floods seen in the region.

The two most common are driven by rain and snowmelt. Less common, but more sudden and highly destructive are those that caused by glacial lake outbursts (GLOFs) and landslide-dammed lake outburst floods (LLOFs).

While population rise, and expansion of infrastructure is increasing exposure to risk, temperature rise is the key factor in the rise in the number of all four categories of floods.

“The rules of floods are changing and the window for adaptation is closing,” warned Sonam Wangchuk, one of the report’s authors. “A single monsoon cloudburst or glacial collapse can trigger cascading disasters, overwhelming unprepared regions.

“We should prioritise real-time monitoring of floods in vulnerable valleys, restrict infrastructure projects in high-risk zones, and strengthen data-sharing agreements between High Mountain Asia nations to address transboundary threats.”

Authors emphasise that while climate change is aggravating the risks of all types of floods, there are complex dynamics at play in each type.

“[While] pluvial and snowmelt floods… result from extreme rainfall,” report author Dongfeng Li, principal investigator of the Cryosphere and River Lab at Peking University, states, “snowmelt floods are driven by rising temperatures and increased soil moisture. In contrast GLOFs and LLOFs [are] shaped by complex interactions between climate, glaciers, and topography.”

Human activities are hugely aggravating the risks from floods, especially urbanisation and land use changes, such as human settlements in flood plains, deforestation, and dams, can all increase vulnerability and reduce natural buffers.

Four key types of floods:

In the context of rising risks, the study’s authors urge greater emphasis on community-based flood mitigation efforts including community awareness programs, locally-led construction of protective infrastructure, and local emergency planning.

The study is published in February’s edition of Science Bulletin, a peer-reviewed international journal, which is sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.


For media inquiries, please contact:

Neraz Tuladhar (Raz), Media Officer
Email: media@icimod.org

6 Dec 2017 Press releases
MOPE, EU, and ICIMOD host international conference on resilient HKH

After four days of invigorating discussion on resilience issues in the Hindu Kush Himalaya, Nepal’s Ministry of Population and the ...

5 Dec 2023 Press releases
Right Honourable Mr Ram Chandra Paudel, President of Nepal, attends celebrations to mark 40 years of ICIMOD

Kathmandu, [5 December 2023] – The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) marks four decades of catalysing sustainable development in the complex ...

26 Apr 2023 Press releases
亚洲史上最严重的酷暑四月:科学家们敦促采取行动避免新都库什- 喜马拉雅地区的灾难性影响

Read in english   随着高温热浪袭击了孟加拉、中国、印度、缅甸和巴基斯坦,本月亚洲气温记录被刷新。国际山地发展中心(ICIMOD)的科学家们敦促全球政府和企业加快减排速度,发展机构来投入更多的气候资金,以努力加快脚步来帮助该地区适应气候变化。 周一(4 月 17 日)孟加拉首都达卡的气温达到41 摄​​氏度,印度普拉亚格拉吉达到 45 摄氏度,缅甸葛礼瓦达到 44 摄氏度。中国长沙、福州创当地最早入夏记录,浙江的几个城市也刷新了全省4月最高气温记录。 4 月 ...

23 Jul 2025 Press releases
International Solar Alliance and ICIMOD join hands to accelerate solar energy deployment in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) ...

20 May 2022 Press releases
Effects of melting glaciers on food production in South Asia

Millions of farmers in South Asia depend on meltwater from the Himalayas. Melting glaciers, rainwater and groundwater allow farmers downstream ...

15 May 2018 Press releases
Forty-ninth ICIMOD Board of Governors meeting

ICIMOD works for the advancement of mountain people in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. It is governed by its BoG, ...

19 Mar 2018 Press releases
Norway renews collaboration supporting sustainable mountain development across the HKH

Achieving transformative change in the lives of mountain people across the eight countries sharing the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) – ...

5 Sep 2018 Press releases
Policies in place, but more needs to be done

  In his inaugural address, Rt. Honourable Vice President of Nepal, Nanda Bahadur Pun said that women’s empowerment is key to ...