Numerical weather prediction: Interpretation and application for Pakistan

Background

The Met Office – UK, the United Kingdom’s national meteorological service, and the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), in collaboration with the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), are organizing a three-day training on numerical weather prediction (NWP) and its applications. The training is a key activity of the Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, which is funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) and builds on initial engagement with the PMD in 2018.

The training aims to strengthen the capacity of PMD meteorologists in the interpretation and application of NWP. This training will bring together meteorologists at the PMD headquarters in Islamabad as well as the provincial offices to familiarize them with the various NWP tools and techniques to ensure better provisioning of services for their use and uptake in Pakistan. Training participants can then pass on the skills and knowledge gained to other colleagues across the PMD and encourage wider exploration of NWP use for improved weather forecasting and warning within Pakistan.

About ARRCC

The ARRCC programme (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/government/international-development/arrcc), which commenced in September 2018, is a four-year programme aiming to strengthen the provision and uptake of weather and climate services across South Asia. While regional in nature, ARRCC will also have a focus on the most vulnerable countries in the region, primarily Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal.

The programme will focus across all meteorological timescales (weather, seasonal, and climate), aiming to build climate and environmental resilience by improving the application and access to weather and climate services at regional to national levels. In addition, the programme will support the development of new technologies and innovative approaches to using weather warnings and forecasts. This will help vulnerable communities better prepare for climate-related shocks.

Funding body: UK Department for International Development (DFID)

Training objectives

The overall aim of this training is to enhance the current skill and capacity of PMD staff in the use and interpretation of a range of operational NWP products. By increasing understanding of NWP’s role within the forecast process, participants will be able to add greater value to downstream forecast products and communication with stakeholders. This will increase the accuracy of forecasts and ultimately help inform the actions users may take, thereby shifting towards an impact-based focus.

By the end of this training, participants will have:

1. An enhanced understanding of the range of NWP tools available, and their strengths and limitations
2. An appreciation of the NWP’s role within the forecast process, and confidence to accept or reject NWP outputs through critical assessment
3. Familiarity with NWP tools available within their region and experience of applying these tools
4. An awareness of how NWP can help communicate uncertainty to stakeholders and the importance of this in a move towards impact-based forecasting

Expected participants

The training will bring together meteorologists employed at the PMD’s headquarters and different provincial offices.