Warning from the Third Pole: Water, Hazards, and Humanity's Future

About the event

ICIMOD is organising plenary session as part of the Arctic Circle India Forum held in New Delhi. The session will present cutting-edge scientific insights to underscore the critical state of the HKH cryosphere and the severe risks of underinvestment in its monitoring. It will foster action-oriented discussions on strengthening observation systems, developing sustainable adaptation strategies, and creating actionable pathways in alignment with the upcoming ‘Decade of Action for the Cryosphere’. The goal is to ensure that the HKH region can better protect its communities, ecosystems and investments from escalating cryosphere hazards.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Karakoram (HKH)—often called the Third Pole, is a vital water source for over a billion people. Yet, it remains one of the most data-scarce regions on Earth, with only short-term monitoring of 38 out of over 54 000 glaciers distributed across the region, extremely limited permafrost observations, and sparse high-altitude meteorological data. This data gap is particularly alarming as the region faces rapid glacier melt, shifting snowfall patterns, permafrost thawing, and rising cryosphere-related hazards, unlike any other glaciated region. Future projections warn of more frequent and intense cryosphere hazards, along with increasing uncertainty in seasonal water availability, posing a direct threat to water, food, and energy security. Addressing these challenges requires urgent investment in cryosphere monitoring, predictive modelling, and data-driven decision-making to enhance risk management, infrastructure planning, and community resilience.

Relevance of the session topic to the Arctic dialogue

The Arctic Circle Forum provides a critical platform for highlighting the interconnectedness of the world’s cryosphere: the Arctic, Antarctic, and the HKH. While the Arctic and HKH regions are geographically distant, they share common climate-driven challenges, including permafrost degradation, glacier retreat, and increasing cryosphere-related hazards. These changes have far-reaching implications not only for regional communities but also for global climate stability, sea-level rise, and transboundary water security. Bringing HKH into the Arctic Circle Forum will facilitate cross-regional dialogue, enabling experts, policymakers, and stakeholders to exchange learnings and best practices, technological innovations, and policy frameworks for enhanced cryosphere monitoring and resilience-building. Strengthening global collaboration in cryosphere science and governance will be essential for ensuring that both polar and high-mountain regions can effectively adapt to rapidly changing climatic conditions. By leveraging the Arctic Circle Forum as a platform, this session will emphasize the global urgency of investing in cryosphere monitoring and fostering international cooperation to ensure that the HKH region can better protect its communities, economies, and ecosystems from escalating climate hazards.

List of speakers, indicating confirmation status

• Safi Ahsan Rizvi, Advisor, National Disaster Management Authority, India
• Anil Kulkarni, IISc Bangaluru, India: Cryospheric hazards in HKH
• Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Kathmandu University, Nepal: Climate Change Impacts on the cryosphere and Adaptation in the Nepalese Himalaya
• Aparna Shukla, MoES, India: Investigating the impact of glacier changes on hydrological resources in the HKH