Upstream-Downstream GLOF hazard and risk assessment

About the training

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS) pose a significant threat to human life and sustainable development, particularly in densely populated downstream areas, where infrastructure is rapidly expanding into hazard-prone zones. These events can lead to catastrophes and long-term disruption to local economies and livelihoods. Critical infrastructure including transportation networks, hydropower facilities, and agricultural land is particularly susceptible.

This five-day training on “Dam Breach Modelling” using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model will focus on building participants’ skills to assess the potential threats posed by GLOFs to downstream communities and infrastructure. It aims to develop the required skillset to support more informed risk reduction planning and early warning systems.

HEC-RAS is a widely recognised tool for simulating river hydraulics and flood scenarios. This training will focus on modelling future GLOF hazards by simulating various scenarios that incorporate different dam breach depths and water release volumes.

The training is organised by Action Area: Cryosphere and Water under the Strategic Group: Climate and Environment, with support from the Government of Norway and Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation.

Objectives

1. Equip participants with essential theoretical knowledge on cryosphere components and associated hazards
2. Build participants’ capacity to simulate dam breach scenarios in HEC-RAS, analyse flood propagation, estimate inundation extents, and identify vulnerable areas for effective risk reduction and emergency planning.
3. Enhance understanding of how dam breach modelling informs disaster risk management and supports evidence-based policymaking.

Expected outcomes

By the end of the training, participants will be able to simulate dam breach scenarios, assess flood hazards, and map high-risk areas. The training will enhance disaster risk planning and support GLOF preparedness. It will also strengthen regional capacity to support climate resilience efforts.

Background

Rapid global warming is causing accelerated glacier retreat in high mountain regions, with the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) among the most severely impacted. Over recent decades, studies have documented significant glacier retreat, and mass loss across the HKH. As these glaciers recede, the formation and expansion of glacial lakes have become increasingly common, contributing to a rise in the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These highly destructive events are typically triggered by natural processes such as ice or snow avalanches, rockfalls, landslides, intense rainfall, or thawing permafrost. In the HKH, often the moraine-dammed lake failures are linked to displacement waves caused by avalanches or heavy rains. The region’s steep and unstable terrain further compounds the risk through cascading hazards, where GLOF can initiate secondary events like debris flows, erosions, landslides, or additional outbursts, significantly amplifying the overall impact.

For further information, check out the call for application page here.

Resource persons

Priv.-Doz. Mgr. Adam Emmer, Ph.D.

Priv.-Doz. Mgr. Adam Emmer, Ph.D., is a physical geographer specializing in high mountain geomorphology and natural hazard science. He holds a PhD from Charles University, Prague (2017), and a habilitation from the University of Graz (2022). His research focuses on the impacts of retreating glaciers, glacial lake evolution, and outburst floods, with over 50 scientific papers published on geo-environmental changes in mountain regions. He has received multiple awards, including from the Austrian Geographical Society, the Czech Association of Geomorphologists, and the International Consortium on Geo-disaster Reduction.

Dr. Ashim Sattar

Assistant Professor (GLOF Expert), IIT Bhubaneswar

Dr. Ashim Sattar, Assistant Professor at IIT Bhubaneswar, is a leading expert in glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and glacier-related hazards. He serves on the “Sikkim Commission on Glacier Hazards” and the international GAPHAZ scientific group. His research focuses on climate impacts on the Himalayan cryosphere, remote sensing-based glacier modelling, and multi-scale GLOF hazard assessments across the Himalayas, Andes, Iceland, and Central Asia. He has published widely, including a Science paper on the South Lhonak GLOF, and works extensively on GLOF risk reduction, hydropower impacts, and transboundary hazards. He is also developing mobile applications to support early warning systems.