Upstream-Downstream GLOF hazard and risk assessment

About the training

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS) pose a significant threat to human life and sustainable development, particularly in densely populated downstream areas, where infrastructure is rapidly expanding into hazard-prone zones. These events can lead to catastrophes and long-term disruption to local economies and livelihoods. Critical infrastructure including transportation networks, hydropower facilities, and agricultural land is particularly susceptible.

This five-day training on “Dam Breach Modelling” using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model will focus on building participants’ skills to assess the potential threats posed by GLOFs to downstream communities and infrastructure. It aims to develop the required skillset to support more informed risk reduction planning and early warning systems.

HEC-RAS is a widely recognised tool for simulating river hydraulics and flood scenarios. This training will focus on modelling future GLOF hazards by simulating various scenarios that incorporate different dam breach depths and water release volumes.

The training is organised by Action Area: Cryosphere and Water under the Strategic Group: Climate and Environment, with support from the Government of Norway and Swiss agency for development Corporation.

Objectives

1. Equip participants with essential theoretical knowledge on cryosphere components and associated hazards
2. Build participants’ capacity to simulate dam breach scenarios in HEC-RAS, analyse flood propagation, estimate inundation extents, and identify vulnerable areas for effective risk reduction and emergency planning.
3. Enhance understanding of how dam breach modelling informs disaster risk management and supports evidence-based policymaking.

Expected outcomes

By the end of the training, participants will be able to simulate dam breach scenarios, assess flood hazards, and map high-risk areas. The training will enhance disaster risk planning and support GLOF preparedness. It will also strengthen regional capacity to support climate resilience efforts.

Background

Rapid global warming is causing accelerated glacier retreat in high mountain regions, with the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) among the most severely impacted. Over recent decades, studies have documented significant glacier retreat, and mass loss across the HKH. As these glaciers recede, the formation and expansion of glacial lakes have become increasingly common, contributing to a rise in the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). These highly destructive events are typically triggered by natural processes such as ice or snow avalanches, rockfalls, landslides, intense rainfall, or thawing permafrost. In the HKH, often the moraine-dammed lake failures are linked to displacement waves caused by avalanches or heavy rains. The region’s steep and unstable terrain further compounds the risk through cascading hazards, where GLOF can initiate secondary events like debris flows, erosions, landslides, or additional outbursts, significantly amplifying the overall impact.

For further information, check out the call for application page here.