The development of the technical framework to assess the impact of slow-onset events

Organizers: ICIMOD , UNDP

About the workshop

A joint approach by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and ICIMOD highlights the value of established risk management and adaptation practices, while recognizing their limits in addressing future loss and damage under worsening climate vulnerability and exposure. This workshop is a critical step forward for adapting and expanding the PDNA methodology to create a technical guide tailored to assess the impacts of slow-onset events (SOE) by focusing on glacial retreat. By developing a technical guide, this collaboration aspires to contribute to the broader global dialogue on loss and damage. The goal is to establish a universally recognized guide based on standardized approaches for assessing effects and impacts from slow-onset events and paving the way for international collaboration in addressing such challenges.

The two-day workshop will bring together technical experts, policymakers, researchers, and practitioners to co-develop a mutually agreed framework for assessing both economic and non-economic losses and responses to glacial retreat in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). Participants will engage in collaborative exercises, using systems thinking and foresight to map cascading impacts, identify data gaps, and align assessment approaches with global and regional frameworks such as the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) and the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology. The outputs will form the foundation for a standalone Technical Guide that will be used regionally and globally.

Objective

Develop a jointly agreed framework, based on the PDNA methodology, to assess the impacts of glacial retreat and related hazards—including both economic and non-economic losses—and to develop and outline of a technical guide for recovery, restoration, and assessment of slow onset event in the Hindukush Himalayan Region. To achieve this, UNDP and ICIMOD shall discuss:

1. The current status of glacial retreat in the HKH, and the tools for tracking and monitoring glacial retreat. This can include scoping and inventory of tools and methods for climate modelling, monitoring physical changes, and understanding biophysical, socio-economic impacts of glacial retreat.
2. Brainstorm on how PDNA can be adapted for assessing loss and damages due to glacier retreat in the HKH. Identify gaps and areas to enhance adoption of PDNA and action plan to address the gaps in the overall methodology.
3. Identify data sources, gaps, and proxies for collecting data on economic and non-economic losses, such as climate trends, remote sensing, risk and vulnerability assessments, biophysical and socio-economic impact estimations, indigenous knowledge, and other studies.
4. Identify stages of progression of glacial risks and triggers and reference points for when assessments can be done, including a choice of frequency of assessments.
5. Evolve from monitoring and tracking based methodology to one assessing impacts.
6. Identify impacts (economic and non-economic loss) of glacial retreat and glacial lake outburst floods, on various sectors including data requirements for the same.

As a result of the above discussions, using systems thinking and foresighting, UNDP and ICIMOD aims to develop a visualization of:

1. An illustrative impact pathway that shows the cascading and interconnected effects of glacial retreat. This can be done at multiple scales- temporal, sectoral, and geographical.
2. Actionable measures for minimizing and addressing loss and damage.
3. Identify adaptation, risk reduction, and recovery options based on impact types.

Background

Currently, UNDP applies the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology to assess mainly economic impacts and recovery needs from fast-onset disasters such as extreme weather events and geological events. Within this context, UNDP Country Offices have supported capacity building and its application in numerous major disasters in the HKH region. The methodology, however, also has potential for assessing slow-onset events and their associated economic and non-economic losses. ICIMOD on the other hand is the center of excellence in monitoring glacial retreat—a key slow-onset event identified under numerous reports such as those published by the IPCC and UNFCCC, and related climate agreements and decisions. While not directly engaged in PDNA and in post-disaster recovery, ICIMOD’s Cryosphere Initiative monitors glaciers and snow in the region, producing risk knowledge that are important for reinforcing synergies between climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and recovery.