Training on the impact of climate change on the Kabul River basin using the JAMS/J2000 modelling system

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Background 

Understanding the hydrological dynamics of a river system is crucial for water resources planning and management. In the context of climate change, changing temperature and precipitation patterns are likely to affect the hydrological regime of a river basin. In the Himalayan river basins, snowmelt patterns, glacier melt processes, and evapotranspiration are likely to be affected, which will in turn impact the flow regime and seasonality. In the given scenarios, hydrological extremes are likely to be increased, which might affect water resources-related infrastructure and water-dependent sectors.

To bolster water resources management in Afghanistan, ICIMOD’s Strengthening Water Resources in Afghanistan (SWaRMA) Initiative organized a training programme – in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), Afghanistan – on the application of the J2000 model in the Kabul River basin from October to November 2018 in New Delhi, India. The participants, which included representatives from relevant ministries and universities of Afghanistan, received training on the J2000 hydrological model and learnt how to set up the model in the Kabul River basin’s Panjshir catchment to conduct water balance assessment. 

Following this training, selected participants also visited the ICIMOD headquarters in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a month-and-a-half in-depth training to set up the Kabul sub-river basin model. MEW prepared a detailed report on hydrological modelling and water balance assessment was prepared by MEW.

About the training programme

Continuing this series of capacity-building exercises, a training programme will be organized on 7–16 November 2019 to assess the impact of climate change on the Kabul River basin’s hydrology. As with the previous trainings, the downscaled global climate models will be used to evaluate the future change in temperature and precipitation patterns in the Kabul River basin. These observations will be used in the J2000 hydrological model to compare present and future hydrological patterns in the basin. The snowmelt patterns and components of the hydrological regime (such as runoff components and evapotranspiration) will also be assessed. 

Objectives

This training aims to co-create knowledge by strengthening the capacity of the Afghan partners on the impact of climate change on water availability in the Kabul river basin.

The specific objectives of the training are as follows:

  • Learn about the J2000 Kabul River basin model 

  • Assess the Kabul River basin’s future climate change scenarios 

  • Assess climate change impact on future hydrology and components of the hydrological regime of the Kabul River basin

Expected outcomes

The training will enable participants to better understand the climate change scenarios of the Kabul River basin and apply them to evaluate the changes in the basin’s future hydrological regime.